I have been waiting 6-months for my new Alchemy to be completed. Custom gunmakers have more business than they can handle and are not concerned about the market. Other makers have build times in the Years. I do not understand the concern.

 

IMHO, isn’t about 75% of builders workload for retailers? Correct me if I’m wrong, but if that dries up, and they can’t move product, you’ve (builders) already alienated their audience with ridiculous turnaround times, why would they come back instead of moving onto something they can easily get their hands on? Again, just my 2 cents.

 

Custom is in, expensive 2011s are in, like small batch whiskey is now a big thing. I don't have enough money to understand a lot of this market, but someone does. The people that are just able to afford something nice, the ones making sacrifices, selling other guns to finance a more expensive one, they might drop out of the market for a while until things settle down. But the folks with money still have money, and they'll continue by the good stuff. Just look at the watch and car threads in this forum, lots of Rolexes and Porsches being posted.

 

I co-operate a family repair shop. The way I look at things like guns is, what is the rate that they are charging for their services?

$7000 gun, at a hypothetical shop rate of $150 an hour = 46 hours. How does it take 46 hours to produce a firearm? Yes there is materials, but thats not much money. You can train a monkey to run a CNC machine. Put bar stock in vice, push green button, machine runs program and cuts part.

 

Watch the Les Baer factory tour video on YouTube. Unless you took the Disney Behind The Scenes Tour and it ruined the magic.

 

I see a couple of drivers in the custom, semi custom, and special order business:

I want my gun to be brand new. Who knows why the otherwise satisfactory gun in the second hand ad is being sold. There is probably something wrong with it.

I want my gun to be just like I want it. The one in the second hand ad lacks some feature that I expect. And some of the Gottahaves are pretty minor... to me.

Long delivery times arise out of an inability to turn down an order. As the guy who had worked as an independent consulting engineer, before returning to a salaried position told me, "You can't afford to turn down a job. People will get the idea you don't need the work and will quit calling." Yes, there are places with "closed books" but those people are typically already years behind.

I had an odd experience with that. I read glowing reports about a specialty gunsmith. So I bought a gun and set it aside - he said he would tell me when to send it in so he could work on it right away and in the meanwhile it would be on my shelf, not his. After 5+ years while he responded to any inquiry that "patience is a virtue" the same writer who had plugged him so energetically casually mentioned that the gunsmith had changed specialties and was now working on an entirely different class of gun. So I had a gun for sale.

 

Makers need to be attuned to market demand and what consumers want, which changes over time. In general, hi-cap, optics ready, ported or compensated 9mm guns that shoot soft and flat and can be used in action shooting competitions seem to be what's in vogue. the importance of those features may even override "quality" in terms of value proposition

Some more traditional 1911 semi-custom makers have struggled to move into that niche, while upstart 2011 makers who cater to those customers seem to do very well even in this softening economy. For instance, Atlas, which fits the semi-custom maker bill in the 2011 space, seems to have very little difficulty moving their products. and all of their guns are priced $4k and up

 

I don't know how the 1911-2011 market is going to shake out, but a lot of semi-custom builders over the years have made a crap ton of money. And I have no problem with that, build and price your product and I can buy it or pass.
In 2016, before the world went nuts, I bought a well decked out Wilson Combat used but like new off GunBroker. The owner included his original invoice from WC, about $3500. I paid about 70% of retail. I had to send it back to WC, because FedEx would not accept the pre-paid shipping label, Wilson said I could ship it back and they would reimburse me.
Okay, good deal. They said to insure it for $1000. Me being a red neck hillbilly and not a business person, even I understood if it was lost in shipping they could replace it for $1000.
Again this was 2016, but even now I bet the larger builders have way less than $2000 cost in a average pistol.

 

I have found many like new and even never fired semi-custom WC & NHC at 2/3 or less the cost of new. No wait. I just don't see how the rubber band stretches any more between new and used.

 

The semi-custom market never should have flexed much beyond $3k. $2,500 was probably the sweet spot and not a lot has changed beyond bells and whistles that don’t extend much into the actual improvement of function or performance. I see prices of them today and I just kind of laugh and shake my head. Furthermore a full-house custom commonly surpassing $10k is a joke. I love 1911s and would like to think my collection, which includes all of the above, is pretty top notch compared to humanity as a whole. But they’re now too expensive to shoot and the losses derived by actually using them is too steep. They’re now an art project and the perceived value vs actual value is only even perceivable by a small group of people (most consisting of addicts in this forum). It’s a damn shame really…

 

Can't disagree with you at all.
I get the same thought when I hear of somebody actually carrying a $7000+ NH pistol for self defense.
Not only are the "normal" carry scars going to become evident. Lord forbid you ever had to actually use the gun for self defence. Even in a 100% justified shooting, guess where that expensive gun is going to go right afterwards? It'll likely be literally "thrown" right into the trunk of the reponding officer's squad car. From there, it might be accidentally dropped on the sidewalk on the way into the PD evidence room. But even if not dropped, it will be slid accross some evidence desk a few times, then laid to rest inside some metal file cabinet drawer, or better yet, on the top of or eventually the bottom of, some pile of indescriminate hood-built P80 Glock copies or some Lorcin/Hi-Point works of art which are also there until they can be presented as evidence in court.
Granted, I want my carry gun to be 100% reliable and deadly too! But, I don't think it necessary to purchase a $7K-$10K to get that level of assurance either.

As always, YMMV.
Isn't freedom great!

 

This whole discussion makes me long for the Springfield customer shop to open up again. I always felt like their prices, for the offerings they had, were fairly solid. I finally get the house paid off and oldest kid off my payroll and they close up shop.

 

The Dan Wesson special order program was sweet while it lasted also

 

I’m just glad I only carry a $6k gun then 😆. SimonP is right carry what you shoot best , price shouldn’t ever be part of the decision. Old beat revolver to very top end wonder blaster if it’s your best carry it !!

 

Auto repair shops here are $175+ an hour.

 

I immediately thought of this when I saw the thread title:

As to the original question. It seems to me that the pricing is getting beyond a lot of people's means.
Most people would choke on the prices we pay in this group of ours.

 

What's the 'average' Rolex cost these days?
Or the 'average' well appointed pick-up?
Or a pair of brand name jeans?
Or a nice Ribeye ia good restaurant?
Or a Totinos Party Pizza?

 

Yup and the number of people who can pay for the nicer thing on that list without wrecking their finances is shrinking.....

 

Correct. With nearly 23% inflation since 2020, prices are high.

I have collected a dozen old magazine ads and brochures. High end guns have always kinda cost this much new. Its a shame wages are stubborn.

 

Correct. With nearly 23% inflation since 2020, prices are high.

I have collected a dozen old magazine ads and brochures. High end guns have always kinda cost this much new. Its a shame wages are stubborn.

I have no concrete numbers to support this, but it feels like 1911 prices went up 50-60% since 2020. That being said, I also feel that 40% is a more reasonable number for inflation since 2020 for my household (outside of mortgage).

 

I would be curious what percent of folks are buying $4000+ high pistols using credit cards verses cash. Guessing everyone purchases using a card for safety, however do they pay it off immediately or does it carry over month to month. If so, might end up like expensive cars and upside down even worse with interest rates.

 

If you’re smart you should never pay credit card fees. I have the cash to pay for high end guns but I don’t use it. It’s not hard to find a 0% interest card. Wells Fargo has 1 for 0% for 21 months. There are many cards out there for 12 months at 0%. My advice is don’t use credit cards if you can’t afford to pay for the product up front. I’d rather use my money to make more money. So I take advantage of good deals.

 

I‘m not sure the ”economy” is a danger to the semi-custom market, most people buying 1911, 2011, BHP, Shadow 2, DWX, Aliens, etc either have enough disposable income (or disposable brain cells) not to notice. Now if someone said Staccato was dropping the price of the XC to $3500 that would certainly be a threat to the semi-custom market.

 

I disagree in that the people who have enough disposable income is shrinking and the disposable brain cells group is still buying which is the definition of a bubble leading to a crash.

 

I love custom and semi-custom 1911s, the nicer the better. That is my rationalization when it comes to carrying an expensive custom gun. If it makes me happy and I can afford it, which is barely, I do it.

 

There's a really nice Ed Brown Special Forces for sale in classifieds I'd love to have. Priced right

 

Damn I wish I had read this in March!

 

Demand is there for good deals and high quality. Market is real soft but a nice burton (and others) still pushing higher. Cash is trash and scarce is king

 

Back to the topic at hand, I agree with everything Simonp wrote. I know there is a softening of demand with at least a couple of semi-custom 1911 builders. I feel for them and hope very much that they can weather the storm.

 

But wait! Before airing complaints in public, did he get Good Customer Service in that they fixed their duds?

 

More labor intensive work will cost more. What is your time worth? You can always go the standard manufacturing route (Which is the way I have gone) because it's much more affordable. The market is soft and has been soft for sometime now. I have seen lots of good deals if your in the market for new or even used. But a good deal yesterday could be expensive today. When looking at the pricing - what features are included and what are not. More features = more labor = more $.

 

Ouch. Have you posted elsewhere on the forum about the problems? If not, please share.

I'll stop you right there...of my last 3 hawks, two had to be sent back as they were QCd by a blind person...

Agent 2 had burrs on the outside of the slide, which had been cerakoted over…lol
Vice President had a broken safety spring plunger. The plunger detent was out of spec and a portion sheared off and shot the spring into the ether immediately after taking the gun apart to clean the first time

they eventually shot great, but I don’t buy the “this costs this much money so the product must be this much better” mentality.

instagram goes away…I foresee these $5k + gun sales drying up. Gotta get that social media clout you know… my 2 cents

 

Meanwhile my Tisas Match and MAC/Tisas JSOC have been great and I have had zero complaints.

 

I think shops like NHC will do fine. Even if new gun sales go down I think the customer shop will pick up. I may not want to spend $4k-$5k on a new gun but a $1500 DW sent to Bob for $1500 of work sounds pretty good to me. I imagine I’d take a beating if I were to try and sell it, because it’s still a “DW” but I don’t buy to sell…

 

Here's some #'s I pulled from 2022

		PSTL_9MM	PSTL_50	PSTL_TOTL
KIMBER MFG INC		97753	105568	210418
COLT'S MANUFACTURING COMPANY LLC		3534	31180	34727
STI FIREARMS, LLC		30284	105	30390
WILSONS GUN SHOP INC		6525	2038	8820
NIGHTHAWK CUSTOM LLC		2134	1655	3847
ATLAS GUNWORKS INC		1190	97	1718
ED BROWN PRODUCTS, INC		510	832	1342
LES BAER CUSTOM INC		112	1127	1239
CABOT GUN COMPANY LLC		376	738	1114
GUNCRAFTER INDUSTRIES, LLC		54	89	143
CHAMBERS CUSTOM LLC		82	6	88

 

These numbers are very interesting. Where did you get this data and how complete is it?

Did Kimber really make more pistols than everyone else combined in 2022?

With about 1000 pistols per year there is a huge price difference between Ed Brown, Les Baer, and Cabot that can’t just be due to materials and labor pricing.

I’m surprised at how industrious GI and CC are I was expecting sub-50 per year for both.