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Are Semi-Custom Makers in Trouble

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21K views 314 replies 110 participants last post by  KJVAV  
#1 ·
scanning through GB last night it became apparent that as semi-custom makers transitioned to 2011 builds the price of many guns have increased to the mid-$4,000's to near $6,000 -- in some cases.

The gun market is already weak. If the economy weakens further (or even we see a recession) can these manufacturers continue the way they currently look with new-order-sales maybe cut by 30, 40 or even 50%?

Plus, any widespread economic weakness would result in a flood of guns from the secondary market with substantially lower prices.

For a guy like, it's more fun to search for a pre-loved gun in the $2,500 range than order new and pay $4,500 - and wait.

The full custom $10,000 gun has be VERY soft
 
#95 ·
Not really sure why there is so much intermingling of the semi-custom and custom 2011 market with the semi-custom and custom 1911 market in this particular discussion, most of the shops and smiths that build 2011's build 1911's too, its just a different model and whether or not you like 2011's or agree with their pricing, that will be addressed in a market correction if need be.

The fact remains that pre pandemic one could buy a semi-custom from NH or any other semi-custom shop for under $4,000 and could get one at your local ffl with no wait, you wanted that President model with an Ambi safety instead and different sights, no problem - have it here in 4-6 weeks. The appeal, personal opinion, was that you got 90% give or take of a full custom gun at a fraction of the price at little or no wait time. Fast forward to today where those semi customs can cost as much as a full house from an individual smith and may or may not have the same wait time, where is the appeal? I don't have an issue picking up a used Bear from the classifieds and sending it to Bob for some changes and waiting 3 months but personally if I want a BNIB stock NH then I want it today, I'm personally not willing to wait - I don't think I am alone in this thinking but who knows.

Chuck brought up the costs of mechanics local to him as a comparison to the quoted NH shop rates, ask 100 people and you will probably get 99 different answers on whether or not a smith at a company should be earning the same, more or less than your local mechanic - regardless of your career it's too damn expensive these days to there is definitely sympathy and empathy for all the folks (myself included). That being said if semi customs keep on moving up in price, they will price themselves out of the market, no one is going to pay the same price for a NH as they do for a Burton and if Burton (or insert favorite smith name here) raises his prices in accordance with NH to keep pace his customer base will shrink too.

At the end of the day, a semi-custom or full custom built 1911/2011 is a luxury item for most folks, even if you carry it and rely upon it as a tool you can pick up a bone stock Colt or Wesson, send it to NH or Milks for some necessary reliability work & sights for a fraction of what most of us on here spend on a gun and be just fine with the tool.

Again I don't think it's just me but I watch the classifieds and I buy used then send it off for whatever changes I "need" because that is the most value for the money, my opinion, and frankly until there is more of a correction in the market I am pursuing rifle builds because my $$ goes so much further and I am having a blast shooting long guns when I am not shooting my pistols.
 
#103 ·
You are not alone in your NH
Not really sure why there is so much intermingling of the semi-custom and custom 2011 market with the semi-custom and custom 1911 market in this particular discussion, most of the shops and smiths that build 2011's build 1911's too, its just a different model and whether or not you like 2011's or agree with their pricing, that will be addressed in a market correction if need be.

The fact remains that pre pandemic one could buy a semi-custom from NH or any other semi-custom shop for under $4,000 and could get one at your local ffl with no wait, you wanted that President model with an Ambi safety instead and different sights, no problem - have it here in 4-6 weeks. The appeal, personal opinion, was that you got 90% give or take of a full custom gun at a fraction of the price at little or no wait time. Fast forward to today where those semi customs can cost as much as a full house from an individual smith and may or may not have the same wait time, where is the appeal? I don't have an issue picking up a used Bear from the classifieds and sending it to Bob for some changes and waiting 3 months but personally if I want a BNIB stock NH then I want it today, I'm personally not willing to wait - I don't think I am alone in this thinking but who knows.

Chuck brought up the costs of mechanics local to him as a comparison to the quoted NH shop rates, ask 100 people and you will probably get 99 different answers on whether or not a smith at a company should be earning the same, more or less than your local mechanic - regardless of your career it's too damn expensive these days to there is definitely sympathy and empathy for all the folks (myself included). That being said if semi customs keep on moving up in price, they will price themselves out of the market, no one is going to pay the same price for a NH as they do for a Burton and if Burton (or insert favorite smith name here) raises his prices in accordance with NH to keep pace his customer base will shrink too.

At the end of the day, a semi-custom or full custom built 1911/2011 is a luxury item for most folks, even if you carry it and rely upon it as a tool you can pick up a bone stock Colt or Wesson, send it to NH or Milks for some necessary reliability work & sights for a fraction of what most of us on here spend on a gun and be just fine with the tool.

Again I don't think it's just me but I watch the classifieds and I buy used then send it off for whatever changes I "need" because that is the most value for the money, my opinion, and frankly until there is more of a correction in the market I am pursuing rifle builds because my $$ goes so much further and I am having a blast shooting long guns when I am not shooting my pistols.
You are not alone in your stock NH stance. I ordered a bone stock no option President in March 2023. I still do not have an idea when it’s coming. More frustrating than that, my LGS gets in a handful of NHs throughout the year. What do you on know a few months ago I see my exact gun sitting on their shelf for sale, just received.

I won’t do it again, there’s just too much life that happens in 2 years
 
#111 ·
Take the numbers for what they may be worth. Has Any Agency quoted correct numbers? 3 years ago is a bit of time. I joined in 2023 and found GI interesting to me but not enough known about them. They seemed very boutique at that time. At the same time Wilson and Nighthawk epiphanies were in full swing for me.
 
#110 · (Edited)
A 2 yr wait is simply unacceptable 😑 I had no idea they were still running those lead times 5 years post Covid.

I ordered a pretty heavily optioned Ed Brown last fall, quoted 4 months and got it in 8 weeks.
 
#112 ·
A 2 yr wait is simply unacceptable 😑 I had no idea they were still running those lead times 5 years post Covid.

I order a pretty heavily optioned Ed Brown last fall, quoted 4 months and got it in 8 weeks.
I agree. It’s one thing if they advertised a 2yr lead time but taking an order and then having an unknown length of wait measured in years would result in my never being a repeat customer.
 
#119 ·
I think there was something circulating a few years ago that the price is what you pay as of when the gun starts bring built, not the price when you ordered it.

Maybe that was Wilson if I recall, that used some language like that.
 
#128 ·
Golf, Now that's a subject for another thread. :D The same can be said of Bass Fishing. I carry what I shoot the best. i don't own any that don't get carried.There are a couple though that get exercised about every 6 months. A better built firearm does affect your performance. I think it fits my needs better. All in fun...I don't think you need to spend $500 - $700 on a Glock when a Taurus or Hi Point will do. :rolleyes:
 
#127 ·
A Commissioned Build is just like about anything else. it takes time and money. Get the house remodeled? Funny thing in my area every home repair, update that's contracted, about $3500. Desire that dream Corvette? $$$$$$ Do you appreciate Art, Fine Wine, Scotch or a Good Cigar? It simply is perspective. Time now is a limited. I realize there are x amount of range sessions left in this Classic Body. No commissioned builds here. The Ed Brown time frame is intriguing. I have a list that is long, I'm slowly striking them off the list. Finances are tight not unbearable. So these companies don't make as much profit year over year. As a business they have to make a profit just how much? Cost Benefit Analysis... Or Rack and Stack... Nighthawk or Wilson or ACW or GI or Ed Brown or Dan Wesson. Be honest its what moves you not necessarily what's best for you,
 
#131 ·
The thing I would very much to know is the interest earned on deposits with 2+ year durations. The big semi-custom manufacturers and custom builders with longer backlogs.
Money never sleeps.
Good question, my guess is no and their (NH) answer would be that you are saving 20% over the price of the gun in 2 years............

2-year wait on a semi-custom is just insane to me, cannot and will not do that - ever. You can get in on a one-man shop and have the same or shorter wait and personally I never pay a deposit, pay on completion. Period.
 
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#136 ·
I do business all across America. I get a lot of data daily and month end Financials from many corporations.
There's no question that things are slowing down and when peeling the onion it's easy tonsee that the lower third of the populace is strapped with debt that can't be paid back and the outrageous inflation of the last 4 years buried many. Add to that the insidious rise in utility costs and people are choosing between paying utilities and their car payments. The lower third is clobbered and can't climb out of the ditch.
The middle third while doing much better has still added a ton of revolving debt and are grappling with higher interest rates--the question for the middle third is will they be willing to add even more zeros to the ledgers and keep up their lifestyle. It's a dicey game for them. The upper third and the 1% in that group are in great shape and have deep pockets, but that doesn't mean they won't take advantage of "deals" on just about anything.
Gun sales are following the data. Most gun owners are not going to be selling but if they are part of the lower third they will re-arrange their budgets and assets so some will sell.
There are plenty of people who loaded a credit card to buy a premium pistol and now they need cash.
Chances of a short lived recession are pretty strong--but if Musk and Trump get DOGE $5,000 checks out and if tax cuts are passed too, then we are off to the races again quickly.
It's a very dicey game the Government is in. Too much stimulus and we'll bring back roaring inflation again. Too little and we remain in stagfaltion which is what we have been in now for 4 years. I would argue that a mild recession is easier to get out of than continued stagflation, so we'll see what we have by the end of May.
 
#137 ·
Meanwhile my Tisas Match and MAC/Tisas JSOC have been great and I have had zero complaints.
Seems like "Dynamic pricing" is the new go to. Got a notice from a Vendor of mine that they were having a price increase effective immediately because of the Tariffs.

Here we go... first covid supply chain issues, now tariffs. Gtfo
 
#138 ·
It doesn't help that the Dems and their MSM propaganda wing are out in full force spreading panic over DOGE and tariffs, intentionally hoping to crash the market to make Trump look bad. These people will stop at nothing, and the dumbasses keep falling for their BS that anyone with half a mind see right through.
 
#144 ·
pent up demand or artificially created scarcity? Buy pre-owned & you’ll be glad you did
 
#147 · (Edited)
I have been working on & building 1911s for around 35 years. Mostly just for myself, family and friends during my military and then LEO careers. Building 1911s is therapy for me. It's my temporary escape from the reality of this world. But, I too have struggled with the pricing of custom 1911s. I fully understand what it takes to build a full custom work of art since Bob Marvel is actually a friend of mine. I trained under him, and even worked in his personal shop with him at his home. He has forgotten more about 1911s than I will ever know. And it shows in his work.

It takes a lot of time, effort & skill to build a one off custom masterpiece. They are beautiful, elegant, and to be admired. But, they just aren't for me. My personal style/ taste in 1911s is much more simple. I focus on reliability, accuracy, and durability rather than bells and whistles. I lean more towards defensive/ duty/ fighting pistols (hand fit of course). I don't build works of art that are to be admired through glass or wiped off if I get a fingerprint on them. I build tools that are meant to perform a certain task if called upon. if it won't help save you in a gunfight, I don't put it on the gun.

I am trying to establish a small....very small side business that specializes in such 1911s. I am trying to keep the cost reasonable for the "average" guy who wants a quality reliable, accurate, and durable fighting 1911, but can't afford the $5k - $10k price tag that some charge. Heck, I can't afford it either. I feel a lot of people who love 1911s, especially customs, are priced out of the club.

I am trying to figure a way to build such a 1911, full build not a factory rebuild, that would sell for around $2500. Not an easy task, as I am working on a personal carry build that I will have around $2600 in just in parts & finish! My goal is to just do work that I can be proud of, at a price most can afford. Maybe someday soon I can do it.

Anyway, this was an interesting thread and I just wanted to say hello to you all, and give my 2 cents, if it's even worth that much. God bless!

Ken
 
#167 ·
I wish you the best! Organic word of mouth growth is the safest driver of growth. As a sample of one, the it's a tool first working pistol perspective is my favorite type of 1911.

1911s are like a custom Harley you can pack around on a belt. There's no end to the potential tinkering and fine detailing. But there certainly a point of diminishing returns from an unemotional it's just a tool perspective.

I doubt many $2500+ 1911s are being knocked around in the field by cool guy operators these days. From a it's just a tool perspective there are lots of $500-1500 options that can absolutely get top tier work done and people won't cry too much over of it if it ends up at the bottom of the ocean or lost in a swamp. That custom 1911 on the other hand... That's just painful!
 
#181 ·
I think it’s funny that all these countries are instituting “Retaliatory Tariffs” and Trump’s have t even gone into effect yet.
All of you need to remember that every one of these countries have tariffs on us already.

We are asking for a level playing field.

But remember the so-Tariffs that so many, Uneducated in Civics and History are screaming about are in fact a loud and clear shot across the bow to stop the Fentanyl. These scumbag countries, Canada, China and Mexico are doing nothing but encouraging death and destruction to America and facilitating drugs coming in. They get paid getting drugs into the USA.

They will all crumble and worship at our feet economically.
We are the major player in the world. They are not.

Anyone out there who thinks China is an economic power really should read how weak they really are. The Chinese produce ZERO products that are essential to 95% of Americans. Stop buying the cheap **** at Walmart.
 
#183 ·
I think it’s funny that all these countries are instituting “Retaliatory Tariffs” and Trump’s have t even gone into effect yet.
All of you need to remember that every one of these countries have tariffs on us already.

We are asking for a level playing field.

But remember the so-Tariffs that so many, Uneducated in Civics and History are screaming about are in fact a loud and clear shot across the bow to stop the Fentanyl. These scumbag countries, Canada, China and Mexico are doing nothing but encouraging death and destruction to America and facilitating drugs coming in. They get paid getting drugs into the USA.

They will all crumble and worship at our feet economically.
We are the major player in the world. They are not.

Anyone out there who thinks China is an economic power really should read how weak they really are. The Chinese produce ZERO products that are essential to 95% of Americans. Stop buying the cheap **** at Walmart.
well stated 👍👏
 
#184 ·
I believe this tariff war will make matters much worse for the economy in the short term. Trump may find out this is bigger than he thought. I support the move but know it will be met with heavy resistance. I am in the beef business and China cancelled every US packers permit to sell China. This is a huge blow to cattle.
 
#188 ·
This happened in his first term. People panic sold stocks, cried about how much we need these other countries and within 4 months Iran had no money, there were no terror attacks again after Vegas and the market was at an all time high. And everyone had money.
Other than Shark Fin soup the United States is the largest consumer of everything on earth I know of. And we have the God given natural resources, ingenuity and will power to make everything we need right here or in one of their competition’s country.
So tell me who needs who more. We have all the money, all the cards and all the leverage in this game.
This is to stop Fentanyl. The Chinese ship all the ingredients to make it, the Mexicans and Canadians let it pass with ease over into our borders because they get paid. Doesn’t matter to them that thousands of people in America die every year from that crap. But it matters to Trump and it matters to me. I hate being cheated.
China and Mexico have their own trade war going on with each other no one even talks about. Russia has a real war going on that this guy wants to stop.
In Trumps early years there was 4000 point drop in the Dow. And guess what it overcame that and set new highs every week. Nothing can stop a determined America when things are fair. And they are not fair.
What I can’t understand is how many people in the US don’t even know all of these countries already have tariffs on our US. Why shouldn’t we do the same damn thing.
Again laughingly Trump hasn’t even instituted most of the tariffs (haven’t looked at news in days) yet you get this sky-is-falling reaction from these adversaries. Hell yes the sky is falling…on your country stealing from us. They have been ripping us off for so long and they finally got called on it. If you are taking flak then you are over the target. So panic, scream out loud how unfair, do all the retaliatory tariffs they want. It’s not going to make a difference because we will win. Every time. Maybe some medicines the Chinamens have we need. That’s it. Anyone in the US can live without a new plastic laundry basket, spatula, cheap azz HF tools or norinco 1911. We can live happily ever after without them at all and they know it.
 
#193 ·
This happened in his first term. People panic sold stocks, cried about how much we need these other countries and within 4 months Iran had no money, there were no terror attacks again after Vegas and the market was at an all time high. And everyone had money.
Other than Shark Fin soup the United States is the largest consumer of everything on earth I know of. And we have the God given natural resources, ingenuity and will power to make everything we need right here or in one of their competition’s country.
So tell me who needs who more. We have all the money, all the cards and all the leverage in this game.
This is to stop Fentanyl. The Chinese ship all the ingredients to make it, the Mexicans and Canadians let it pass with ease over into our borders because they get paid. Doesn’t matter to them that thousands of people in America die every year from that crap. But it matters to Trump and it matters to me. I hate being cheated.
China and Mexico have their own trade war going on with each other no one even talks about. Russia has a real war going on that this guy wants to stop.
In Trumps early years there was 4000 point drop in the Dow. And guess what it overcame that and set new highs every week. Nothing can stop a determined America when things are fair. And they are not fair.
What I can’t understand is how many people in the US don’t even know all of these countries already have tariffs on our US. Why shouldn’t we do the same damn thing.
Again laughingly Trump hasn’t even instituted most of the tariffs (haven’t looked at news in days) yet you get this sky-is-falling reaction from these adversaries. Hell yes the sky is falling…on your country stealing from us. They have been ripping us off for so long and they finally got called on it. If you are taking flak then you are over the target. So panic, scream out loud how unfair, do all the retaliatory tariffs they want. It’s not going to make a difference because we will win. Every time. Maybe some medicines the Chinamens have we need. That’s it. Anyone in the US can live without a new plastic laundry basket, spatula, cheap azz HF tools or norinco 1911. We can live happily ever after without them at all and they know it.
No, these countries don’t have as large of tariffs, or are they blanket tariffs. Sure, tarriff them as they tariff us. But don’t pretend that this dosnt hurt us as much or more than it does them. And all that crying that people couldn’t afford the cost of living under Biden must have all been lies if suddenly you’re condoning how much more it is to live under Trump.
 
#189 ·
" Tariffs is long coming. It should have been done decades ago... "


we've been getting the short / dirty end of the stick for a LONG time.. unfair trade practices / policies have been in effect for > 50 yrs.. Why ? So we could buy cheap, foreign- made products.
I know this from personal knowledge & experience.

In the 70's, you could buy a Japanese car in the USA for less than you could buy that same car in Japan. Why ? They (Japs) wanted to establish their market in this couintry. Certainly did that well. Do you remember when the Jap car makers were charged with "dumping" their vehicles in the US market ? It happened.

While living in Japan, '75-'76, ( Thanks, USN) I learned a Mustang that would sell for $3- $4K in the US, would cost more than $10K..due to import tariffs charged by Japan. Same was true for trying to buy a Harley in Japan. How many Hondas & Toyotas do you think would have sold in the 70's, if they were priced @ $ 10K ? It was mentioned that when you saw an American-made car driven by a young man in Japan, he was Yakuza :eek:

Most our appliances, TV's, radios were made in the USA. Try to buy one made here, now.
We gave up our manufacturing ability for lower priced stuff.
Cost us American jobs, factories, manufacturing ability / capability, but hey, we got cheap stuff !

No more American made (high quality) steel, or metals. Our electrical component industry ? Now, many of the drugs / pharmaceutical supplies being sold in the USA , are made in China.
It's way past time for the US to impose the same tariffs that other countries have charged us, on American made products sold in their countries.

Nafta was another foreign trade mistake for the USA, as it greatly benefited Mexico, and Canada as well.