DRGO study: liberal CCW laws do not correlate with an increase in violent crime

Discussion in 'General Firearm Discussion' started by B81, Oct 28, 2018.

  1. B81

    B81 Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2018


    Over the last 30 years, public opinion and state level legislation regarding the concealed-carry of firearms have shifted dramatically. Previous studies of potential effects have yielded mixed results, making policy recommendations difficult. We investigated whether liberalization of state level concealed-carry legislation was associated with a change in the rates of homicide or other violent crime.

    Study Design
    Data on violent crime and homicide rates were collected from the US Department of Justice Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) over 30 years, from 1986 to 2015. State level concealed-carry legislation was evaluated each study year on a scale including “no carry,” “may issue,” “shall issue,” and “unrestricted carry.” Data were analyzed using general multiple linear regression models with the log event rate as the dependent variable, and an autoregressive correlation structure was assumed with generalized estimating equation (GEE) estimates for standard errors.

    During the study period, all states moved to adopt some form of concealed-carry legislation, with a trend toward less restrictive legislation. After adjusting for state and year, there was no significant association between shifts from restrictive to nonrestrictive carry legislation on violent crime and public health indicators. Adjusting further for poverty and unemployment did not significantly influence the results.

    This study demonstrated no statistically significant association between the liberalization of state level firearm carry legislation over the last 30 years and the rates of homicides or other violent crime. Policy efforts aimed at injury prevention and the reduction of firearm-related violence should likely investigate other targets for potential intervention.


    The DRGO press release: https://drgo.us/concealed-carry-does-not-increase-violent-crime/

    The journal article: https://www.journalacs.org/article/S1072-7515(18)32074-X/fulltext
    Whiskey Sour, 1L26, Alexy and 3 others like this.
  2. B81

    B81 Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2018
    Please note that the original title of this post contained a rather unfortunate mistake: the word "not" was left out.

    The study basically supports liberalizing (liberal as in free, not liberal as in left-wing) of concealed carry laws.
    Journeyman1234 likes this.

  3. xerts1191

    xerts1191 Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2017
    Good read, thanks.
  4. KTXdm9

    KTXdm9 Well-Known Member

    Sep 23, 2018
    I'm a big fan of John Lott's work, as well. It comes to the same conclusion. I'll take a scientific approach and hard data over the feels approach of the libs any day.
  5. Alexy

    Alexy Well-Known Member

    Oct 30, 2016
    Thanks. More facts that refute gun control advocates and their position.
    KTXdm9 likes this.
  6. N of 1

    N of 1 just one more

    Nov 3, 2016
    cool, looking forward to a full text read. great post!
  7. Patton2018

    Patton2018 Member

    Nov 8, 2018
    Awesome, I can't wait to share this with my students. I teach history at a bastion of liberalism, and you can well imagine the daily challenges that the few conservative students have in classrooms with their general indoctrination.
    Journeyman1234 and 1L26 like this.
  8. 1L26

    1L26 Well-Known Member

    Feb 10, 2018

    Looking forward to see how that was received!
  9. Patton2018

    Patton2018 Member

    Nov 8, 2018
    Just doing what I can to push back against the indoctrination that is taking place in our schools.
    FWoo45 and Ethanol Red like this.
  10. B81

    B81 Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2018
    This is good. As someone who has spent the better part of his adult life in Academia, I have seen and experienced the indoctrination of leftist thinking. Somehow, being anti-gun and embracing socialistic ideology has become synonymous with intellectualism.

    Plenty of intelligectuals were pro-gun. George Orwell being a prominent example.

    "That rifle on the labourers wall or working class flat is the symbol of democracy. It's our job to keep it that way." -- George Orwell
    FWoo45, Journeyman1234 and Patton2018 like this.
  11. Patton2018

    Patton2018 Member

    Nov 8, 2018
    Hey PewPew, I love that quote, its going up on my wall tomorrow.
  12. Scaramouche

    Scaramouche Student of the Columbian Exchange Supporting Addict

    Sep 15, 2015
    When I was in college one of my thesis was on George Orwell, so one could say I'm a Orwell fan boy. When I lived in England I pilgrimaged to Wigan Pier. This is not an attack.

    When Orwell was an Imperial Policeman in Burma he would never had said such a thing.
    When Orwell was part of the Trotskyite militia in the Spanish Civil War he was fighting laborers who were stealing guns from the government's armories, and wont have said such a thing.

    The quote is from a January 1941 article appearing in the Evening Standard written when Great Britain was beset by enemies near and abroad. The context was the establishment of the Home Guard which Orwell was a member. At the start up they had Home Guard leave their issued weapons in the local police station, this changed as the war progressed.

    George Orwell was not a conservative, he was a realist.

    Last edited: Dec 2, 2018
  13. Patton2018

    Patton2018 Member

    Nov 8, 2018
    None the less, I like his realism. Many of us are drawn to conservatism with age and experience. I'm not an expert on Orwell, but he clearly was pushing back against the ultimate liberal utopia when he published "Animal Farm" in 1945. Must have had a Whitaker Chambers moment.
    Journeyman1234 and Scaramouche like this.
  14. Scaramouche

    Scaramouche Student of the Columbian Exchange Supporting Addict

    Sep 15, 2015
    Both Animal Farm and 1984 were books he wrote against communism and totalitarianism from the point of view of a old school-of-hard-knocks socialist.
    PewPewPtwang likes this.
  15. B81

    B81 Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2018
    You don't have to be a conservative to be pro-gun.

    A person's views can change over time.

    The meaning of Orwell's quote of often disputed. Unfortunately, only Orwell knows what he really ment when he said it.

    Perhaps the best way to use the quote in a classroom environment is to allow students to debate its meaning. Afterall, regardless of what Orwell believed, what matters is that students start to think critically about these issues.

    Critical thinking and rational decision making skills are what students ultimately need to develop. Those skills will always lead a person in the right direction.
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2018
    Patton2018 likes this.
  16. Patton2018

    Patton2018 Member

    Nov 8, 2018
    I absolutely agree with you, PewPew.
  17. Scaramouche

    Scaramouche Student of the Columbian Exchange Supporting Addict

    Sep 15, 2015
    I don't disagree @PewPewPtwang , I was simply responding as I was surprised to find a quote by George Orwell on this forum. The standard response to anything with a whiff of socialism is usually disparaged.
  18. B81

    B81 Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2018
    Even if you did disagree, that is okay. I'm not one to take this sort of thing personally.

    The interpretation of Orwell's quote is often the source of debate. I think your perspective is a valid one. I just wanted to show that (1) there are other perspectives, and (2) perhaps what is more important is that it gets people talking about the Second Amendment in a (hopefully) less emotionally charged context than, say, reports of school shootings.
    FWoo45, Patton2018 and Scaramouche like this.

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