[BattlebornNV]

Watching the Classifieds recently I’ve noticed prices have crashed. There are always the few like Yost that don’t seem to tank. Are we at the bottom yet or will they continue to drop more?

 

[Mike Stevens]

Not quite yet,

We still have a ways to go. We should have a better idea by mid summer.

 

[TheDK]

I think a lot of people are holding on to disposable income and those who need the sale are doing what they have to do to get the sale IMO.

 

[simonp]

Nope not yet! Tier one smith builds will be the last to drop in value.

Semi customs and lesser renowned smiths are already dropping and will continue to do so.

 

[mrmadd]

The economy has a lot further to go, and it’s going to drag disposable income down with it. Expect good deals later in the year.

 

[Infidel4life11]

Guns get cheap during holidays and tax season. Also folks should be holding on to their cash after the 2nd half of last year. The general market has done better this month, stocks are going up, crypto is edging up. However, fuel, housing and other costs are still higher.

We have this same conversation every year in June (summer starts, schools out, summer vacations going on) and November through March ish.

 

[azguy1911]

They'll continue to fall and have a ways to go IMHO, people that think an unfired Wilson is worth $3,000+ are in for a wake-up call, those are $2,500 guns

 

[Merton]

I believe that we are nearly there. Whether it has truly bottomed or just close, I don't know. This is officially uncharted territory. Even more interesting, to go from a time when many were making purchases that they otherwise would not have via stimulus checks(I picked up two that totaled about $5k from just stimulus money), wait times for an Alchemy exceeded a year and guns at top dollar sold immediately in the classifieds. Now, ACW delivers in six months, people are selling their stimulus guns because they realize eggs cost $5/dozen(I roll my own) and beautiful semi customs languish at what may only be described as "bargains".

I think the worst sign that we could see would be for the Yost/Rogers/Burton guns to languish and even worse would be if national Glock/AR/etc. sales plummeted.

We deal in luxury and high performance on this forum. That is quite a niche market. If Glock's, Sig's, etc. stop selling that to me would be an economic sign of serious trouble. We're already headed toward serious trouble and things are drying up, but the day that NFL stadiums, Disneyland and Las Vegas sit empty will truly show when things have come undone. Sadly, status symbol cars and NFL/Disney/Vegas trumps home ownership and actual security in today's America and is the ultimate economic standard.

When people show up to church on Sunday rather than the watering hole to spend a day watching men play games, we'll know that it's really bad.

We may have this conversation every year, but this time we aren't speaking of a seasonal swing. It has been a drawn out thing for over a year now and keeps going. The rate of sales in the classifieds when I first started looking in '20 was amazing. They stopped about a year ago and never started again. What used to be seasonal is now an economic slump and to deny that is, well I'm not sure what it is. I don;t know where the bottom is, but that we are slumping is undeniable and has been one of the only consistent things of the last 2-3 years.

 

[TheDK]

They'll continue to fall and have a ways to go IMHO, people that think an unfired Wilson is worth $3,000+ are in for a wake-up call, those are $2,500 guns

It’s only worth $2,500 if the seller sells it for that. If you don’t need the money for something else then it’s worth what the seller says🤷🏻‍♂️

 

[gun_fan111]

Can someone point me to those “crash” listings? All I saw so far are reasonable prices on older used guns that were bought much lower than current inflation driven MSRP.

I know what folks are saying about the economy but I doubt we will see much of a crash in 1911s or any other tangible property (in general, there are always exceptions). Prices will hopefully stabilize and people will stop asking over MSRP for used items, but why would anybody liquidate assets and replace them with cash that is losing value every month?

 

[azguy1911]

It’s only worth $2,500 if the seller sells it for that. If you don’t need the money for something else then it’s worth what the seller says🤷🏻‍♂️

You are backwards in your thinking, it's worth what a buyer will pay (a hammered, transacted price) not what a seller dreams it is worth

 

[simonp]

Can someone point me to those “crash” listings? All I saw so far are reasonable prices on older used guns that were bought much lower than current inflation driven MSRP.

I know what folks are saying about the economy but I doubt we will see much of a crash in 1911s or any other tangible property (in general, there are always exceptions). Prices will hopefully stabilize and people will stop asking over MSRP for used items, but why would anybody liquidate assets and replace them with cash that is losing value every month?

To answer your last question first, because they need the cash for other purchases more than they need that 10th or 20th 1911 in their safe.

There have been Yost (hi Powers) that have sat that last year would have sold instantly, there was a Reid last month that sat & not sure if it in fact sold which again early last year would have sold almost immediately, the number of Alchemy listings continue to grow.

Folks who paid premiums over the last couple of years are likely going to hurt if they need to sell something.

 

[ultradriver10000]

Can someone point me to those “crash” listings? All I saw so far are reasonable prices on older used guns that were bought much lower than current inflation driven MSRP.

I know what folks are saying about the economy but I doubt we will see much of a crash in 1911s or any other tangible property (in general, there are always exceptions). Prices will hopefully stabilize and people will stop asking over MSRP for used items, but why would anybody liquidate assets and replace them with cash that is losing value every month?

Just look at the classifieds. I picked up a beautiful Wilson Experior for a great price, I moved a Les Baer for what I considered low on the value side at $2300 but that money was used for the cehaper Wilson, so I was even on both. There was a TSO that just sold for like $1200... those are $2K new. I sold a like new Wilson for about $2300 I think, but picked up a guncrafter that had a MSRP of like $4300 for ~$2500.

I think the market is going to continue to crash... next winter probably being the worse or at least dead in the middle of a mess.

 

[FranklinBullitt]

Base guns might drop another 50-75 bucks but that's about it. High end guns have a lot more room to discount. For instance In the last 3 months I have offered 4 grand on 6 grand guns and while sellers didn't budge they also haven't sold their inventory yet.
The markets will be tough until the rates stop climbing and people decide the bottom is in.
We are heading to ebbtide and will find out who is swimming with no trunks on.

 

[RatBikeRod]

Any crash will be predicated upon the cost of eggs going higher than gas.

 

[offrdmania]

I have recently bought Hoag, Jardine and Swenson. Hardly a drop in price.

 

[mikegalway]

1911 aficionados tend to be older , and old school. We're dying off. Younger people tend to prefer the plastic striker fired hand guns. JMHO

 

[simonp]

I have recently bought Hoag, Jardine and Swenson. Hardly a drop in price.

The Valtro was at a fair price and priced what they were going for about 3 years ago - cant comment on the other two you picked up.

 

[simonp]

As Merton pointed out this is by and large a niche community, the average gun buyer isnt buying multiple Nighthawks never mind multiple custom smith 1911's.

The folks who worry about or feel the pain when the prices on eggs goes up arent going to be affected much by any of this then again those are the minority even in this niche.

I expect to see prices drop far more in the coming months followed by an adjustment in pricing by some smiths who I think got a little too excited by the market the past couple of years & will find that their pricing is not sustainable.

 

[Merton]

It’s only worth $2,500 if the seller sells it for that. If you don’t need the money for something else then it’s worth what the seller says🤷🏻‍♂️

You're not wrong, but it's only worth that to the seller. I have a DW A2. I simply adore it and if someone offered me an arbitrary high amount, let's say $1500, they would leave with their money. If I put it in the classifieds, it's a $900 used gun, no matter how I feel about it.