Is America approaching a civil war?

Discussion in 'Political Outhouse' started by B81, Jun 30, 2020 at 10:19 PM.

Will there be a second US civil war before 2035?

  1. Yes, without a doubt.

  2. Most likely, yes.

  3. I give it a 50/50 chance.

  4. Probably not.

  5. No, definately not.

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. B81

    B81 Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2018
    Back in 2010, Peter Turchin, a researcher at the University of Connecticut published a paper in the journal Nature. In that paper, he presented an analysis of historical cycles of instability, and predicted that America would suffer a period of major social and economic crisis beginning around 2020. It would appear that his analysis was right. Today, we are are dealing with the economic fallout due to COVID-19, violent protests triggered by the police killing of George Floyd, and now attacks on our fundamental institutions and historical monuments.

    Unfortunately, he says that his analysis suggests that the worse is yet to come. He says that when pent up social and economic pressures are triggered, the crisis that ensues can typically last 5 to 15 years. Furthermore, he worries that--unless the root causes of the current social instability are properly addressed--this could boil over into civil war.

    SOURCE: "This Researcher Predicted 2020 Would be Mayhem. Here's What He Says May Come Next." Time Magazine. URL: https://time.com/5852397/turchin-2020-prediction/. Accessed 6/30/2020.

    So, what do you guys think? Is the next civil war coming sometime in the next 15 years? When I say "war", I mean distinct groups of people fighting to control territory.
     
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2020 at 11:24 PM
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  2. Caspian

    Caspian Chief Steward of Man Law

    152
    Sep 18, 2019
    From the looks of things, I would say in the next 10 MONTHS, not years.
     

  3. FNFAN

    FNFAN Well-Known Member Supporting Addict

    401
    May 15, 2013
    I think that there is going to be sweeping change for the worse. That being predicated on the state of "education" both in school and in the home with both those venues being equally important. The money is in the globalist camp and those same people control the structure of what passes for education and virtually all media.

    Look at what the left is pushing for and the gains they have made toward their goals and you don't have to have a crystal ball to see what's happening. The election of Donald Trump has been the first major impediment of their realization of those goals in quite literally, decades.
     
  4. Dr Awkward

    Dr Awkward Member

    60
    Apr 28, 2020
    Nope, not gonna happen.

    A "civil war" is an active shooting war between military entities vying for control of a country. The military entities don't exist, (so-called militias don't count), and the myriad governmental paramilitary entities have no motive or guiding philosophies to pick sides and start shooting.

    It's not even clear who the sides would be; our two party system does not mean that we're actually two groups of citizens nor anything like it. Many on either side hold their noses and pick the least offensive. There's just no organizational nexus for something as rare and epic as a civil war in a country as vast and diverse as ours.
     
  5. Scaramouche

    Scaramouche Student of the Columbian Exchange Supporting Addict

    Sep 15, 2015
    I am more concerned about a major international crisis brought on by Covid 19 as it deepens worldwide and really starts hurting national economies and supply chains inside that same time frame, the medical community says we've just begun. I hope I'm out in left field with this, as I often times am.

    The distinct lack of leadership and polarization within our country would then contribute to a broader spread of civil unrest.

    I was surprised, though maybe I missed it, that Prof Turchin didn't mention the Rule of Empires in his study of historical time cycles.

    As an aside and off the topic just a little; when this whole virus thing started and international air travel was halted I kept flashing on when we stopped selling oil to Japan prior to WWII. I don't know why, something about it just had a similar scent. But I don't have a crystal ball and not a student of geopolitics.

    No @Mike Meints I haven't been guzzling grape juice tonight
     
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  6. mikegalway

    mikegalway CEO of DILLIGAF industries Supporting Addict

    Feb 23, 2014
    Democrats are great at divide and conquer . Plus they've united most minorities by either buying them or convincing them they're victims . They create a crisis then claim they're the only ones that can fix it . Then when all else fails call everyone else vile names .
     
  7. kevinlittell

    kevinlittell Active Member

    98
    Apr 4, 2020
    The 2 sides will be Entitled Liberals and the rest of us working stiffs...


    (He says while loading more .45 acp and 10mm.)
     
  8. B81

    B81 Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2018
    Contact him and ask. Seriously. So long as you're polite about asking, researchers love to talk about their work.
     
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  9. Dr Awkward

    Dr Awkward Member

    60
    Apr 28, 2020
    So where do we non-entitled liberal working stiffs fit in?
     
  10. azguy1911

    azguy1911 Screw it, I'm buying more 1911's

    Oct 22, 2015
    The right doesn't like the left but the left hates the right.

    The right feels people are entitled the freedoms in the constitution and the left sees it as an old peice of paper.

    The left's drift from middle left to far left started the great dive in this country as they saw it as the only way to beat Trump. I still feel the right is only halfway right of center, not far right.

    For people like Pelosi, Schumer, Feinstien and Biden that have spent 30+ years, each, in DC it was to much of a threat an outsider with no DC experience could win the Presidency. The Russia collusion story and the number of liberals uncovered throughout the DC infrastructure (state department, FBI and non-elected officials) is a real problem in the years aheas for the right.
     
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2020 at 11:14 PM
  11. kevinlittell

    kevinlittell Active Member

    98
    Apr 4, 2020
    With the rest of us working stiffs!!! (variety is the spice of life AND "Be teachable, your not always right!")

    Americans have never agreed 100 percent about the course of our Nation but we used to be really good and compromise. We need to get back there!
     
  12. Badabing11

    Badabing11 I gotta have more cowbell

    Sep 6, 2015
    I think you have a some seriously solid insights Mouche. I've been thinking the same things sans the rule of empires. I need to google that.
     
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  13. Dr Awkward

    Dr Awkward Member

    60
    Apr 28, 2020
    How that looks must depend on where you fit on the political continuum: I feel Obama was a center-left guy, the whole continuum shifted right during the Reagan years (not surprising after the big leftward drift in the 60s), and that the party has gone right again lately (e.g. "Obamacare" was based on center-right policy ideas of a decade ago.)
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020 at 12:06 AM
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  14. pscipio03

    pscipio03 Fun O' Meter on FULL

    Mar 11, 2013
    No. Will be a lot of bloviating, bitching and threats from all sides. In the end, everyone will capitulate and life will go on as our liberties are slowly eroded.
     
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  15. kevinlittell

    kevinlittell Active Member

    98
    Apr 4, 2020
    Dont be the first person coming thru my door on a warrant.
     
  16. xerts1191

    xerts1191 Well-Known Member

    Aug 12, 2017
    Outcome of November election may be the catalyst
     
  17. Dr Awkward

    Dr Awkward Member

    60
    Apr 28, 2020
    COVID-19 has been such a wild card, it seems futile to predict how its effects will ramify over time. Most everything I've thought about it has turned out wrong...

    That said, this is the first time in my life that U.S. hegemony seems like it could be on the table, and that scares the hell out me.
     
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  18. jjfitch

    jjfitch Well-Known Member

    714
    Mar 26, 2012
    This is exactly what the Marxists and Islamist are watching!

    Just what our Forefathers warned us about 245 years ago. T

    "The problem with democracy is democracy itself"!

    Where 1% can determine all the decisions! 51% VS. 49%!

    Regards,
     
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  19. wrmiller

    wrmiller The Tinker

    Oct 29, 2016
    I have been having similar thoughts.
     
  20. Scaramouche

    Scaramouche Student of the Columbian Exchange Supporting Addict

    Sep 15, 2015
    No need, 300 year shelf life, and I don't say this lightly as I've struggled with it ever since I attended a one week seminar at the Naval War College when I was a student at BU in Beantown.
     
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